March Madness 2026 picks: Predictions, odds, lines, schedule for Tuesday's First Four games
March Madness 2026 picks: Predictions, odds, lines, schedule for Tuesday's First Four games
Frank Schwab Tue, March 17, 2026 at 2:50 PM UTC
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For the rest of history UMBC being in the NCAA tournament will bring up good memories — unless you’re a Virginia fan.
In 2018, the University of Maryland, Baltimore County pulled off an upset that was thought to be close to impossible for years. The Retrievers became the first No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. They not only won, but they beat Virginia by 20 points. In 2023 Fairleigh Dickinson repeated the feat by beating No. 1 seed Purdue, but UMBC will always be associated with the No. 1 vs. No. 16 upset. And now the Retrievers are back in the tournament, looking to get another shot at a No. 1 seed.
Here are the picks for the First Four games on Tuesday, with all odds from BetMGM:
UMBC (-1.5) over Howard
Both of these teams played well late in the season. UMBC won 15 of their last 16, while Howard won 14 of 16 to finish.
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Howard lives on its defense, which is very good forcing turnovers and missed shots, and UMBC has a solid offense. One difference here might be that UMBC doesn’t turn it over. They’re 27th in college basketball in turnover rate according to KenPom. That could mitigate one of Howard’s biggest strengths.
UMBC's Josh Odunowo holds the trophy after beating Vermont in the America East tournament final. (Kim Hairston/Baltimore Sun/Tribune News Service via Getty Images) (Baltimore Sun via Getty Images)
As the spread shows, this should be a competitive game to get the tournament going. The pick is UMBC, which is far better at making shots.
NC State (+1.5) over Texas
NC State was a hot team during the offseason. They hired Will Wade, a good coach who was run out of LSU due to controversy over paying players (kind of funny now, isn’t it?), went to McNeese and built a program there that won an NCAA tournament game last season. NC State did well in the transfer portal, in particular landing coveted forward Darrion Williams from Texas Tech. But the results didn’t follow the hype. NC State is 20-13 and went an ugly 2-7 down the stretch.
Picks by region: East | South | Midwest | West
Texas is in Dayton for the First Four for a reason, too. It’s a mediocre Longhorns team that lost five of its last six including an opening-round loss at the SEC tournament to a bad Ole Miss team.
Even though both teams stumbled to the finish, it should be an entertaining game. Both teams are strong on offense and match up well. In a tight matchup, here’s the deciding factor: NC State shoots 3-pointers very well, ranking 10th in the nation, and Texas doesn’t cover the perimeter that well. The Longhorns are 299th in 3-point percentage allowed. One of these teams has to break a bad late-season slump.
Source: “AOL Sports”
