The Trade Desk Stock Has Lost About 89% Since the End of 2024. Its Nov. 9 Report Is the Next Test.
The Trade Desk Stock Has Lost About 89% Since the End of 2024. Its Nov. 9 Report Is the Next Test.
Daniel Sparks, The Motley FoolSun, November 8, 2026 at 9:42 AM UTC
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Image source: Getty Images.Key Points -
The Trade Desk guided for third-quarter revenue of at least $650 million, around 12% below the year-ago quarter.
Second-quarter revenue landed around $35 million under the company's own forecast.
Spending by existing clients dropped in the second quarter, but new clients fueled the growth.
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The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) posts its third-quarter results after the market closes on Monday, Nov. 9. And the stock goes into the report about where the last one left it.
Shares dropped about 22% the day after the company's August forecast, finishing at $13.80. As I write, they trade near $13, after three months of closes between about $12 and $15.
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Pull back further, and the damage is much bigger. The ad tech company's stock ended 2024 at $117.53, so it has lost nearly 89% since then.
That August forecast called for third-quarter revenue of at least $650 million, down around 12% year over year from $739 million. Management also guided for non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of about $160 million, about half the $317 million it made on that measure in the third quarter of 2025.
I think Monday's report matters less for that third-quarter number than for what it says about later quarters.
The floor hasn't always held
The Trade Desk forecasts revenue as a minimum ("at least" a certain amount), and recently its results have been near that minimum, or under it. Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $847 million was $7 million over the company's floor. First-quarter 2026 revenue of $689 million cleared it by $11 million. Then second-quarter revenue grew just 3% year over year to $715 million, about $35 million below the "at least $750 million" management had called for. Adjusted EBITDA of $241 million also came in under the forecast of about $260 million.
That wasn't the first miss, either. The company called for at least $756 million of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024 but brought in $741 million.
"In general, we don't think that guidance should really be considered conservative or aggressive. The goal really is to be credible and I think grounded in the data," said Nate Olmstead, The Trade Desk's new chief financial officer, on the second-quarter earnings call in August.
This makes $650 million the first number to watch on Monday. Clearing it could be an early sign the company's forecasts can be trusted again. Another shortfall would mean The Trade Desk missed its own floor for two straight quarters.
Who's spending less?
In its second-quarter 10-Q filing, The Trade Desk said gross spend (the total ad dollars clients put through its platform) climbed mostly because of campaigns from new clients, partly offset by lower spending from existing clients. In other words, the customers the company already had spent less with it.
Video (which includes connected TV, meaning ads on streaming services watched on internet-connected TVs) is the biggest channel, at a low-50s percentage of the business in the second quarter. Mobile followed at a high-20s percentage. Olmstead said connected TV and audio both grew at double-digit rates. But with total revenue up just 3%, the slowdown probably sat in mobile, display, or the rest of video.
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The U.S. lagged, too. Its share of revenue was around 83% in the second quarter, down from 86% in the same quarter of 2025, which implies U.S. revenue was roughly flat while international markets did almost all the growing.
A quarter that hits $650 million mainly from new clients and overseas growth might still leave the biggest part of the business under pressure.
The outlook may matter more than the quarter
Last year's fourth quarter was the company's largest, with revenue of $847 million, up 14% from $741 million the year before. Another 12% drop would put this year's fourth-quarter floor around $745 million. A forecast over that might signal the declines are easing, while one under it may mean they're still getting steeper.
Earnings could also look worse on paper soon. For the four quarters through June, The Trade Desk earned $0.84 per share, putting the stock at around 16 times earnings. The total includes the third quarter of 2025, when the business earned $0.23 per share. Monday's report swaps it for a quarter guided at around half the adjusted EBITDA, plus severance charges of $39 million to $51 million linked to September's plan to shed about 15% of the staff. So the price-to-earnings ratio might rise even if the stock stays flat.
Ultimately, The Trade Desk doesn't need to return to growth on Monday. But it does need revenue of at least $650 million and a fourth-quarter forecast that drops less than 12%. Without that, I don't think the step-downs are over.
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Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends The Trade Desk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Source: “AOL Money”
